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OSCAR UPDATE VII - January 10, 2007

Three of the four guilds have spoken, so it's worth another Oscar update.  "No Country for Old Men" picked up the top award from the Online Film Critics, the Broadcast Film Critics and the Scripter.  With a Director's Guild Nomination for the Coen Bros. and a Writer's Guild nomination, coupled with Roger Deakins's nomination for an ASC for outstanding cinematorgraphy, "No Country for Old Men," is nearing lock status for a BP win, not just a nomination.  But I'm not ready to go there yet. 

It was also a great week for "Into the Wild," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" "There Will Be Blood" and "Michael Clayton."  It was a really bad week for "Atonement,"  which is a shame because I thought the film was absolutely stunning.  This week also put the nail in the coffin for any longshot hopes for "Sweeney Todd."

If you take a look at the tally among films that have been nominated by the Screen Actor's Guild (SAG), Director's Guild of America (DGA), Writer's Guild of America (WGA) and ASC (cinematography), here's what you have:

"No Country for Old Men" - SAG, DGA, WGA, ASC
"Into the Wild" - SAG, DGA, WGA
"There Will Be Blood" - DGA, WGA, ASC
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" - DGA, WGA, ASC
"Michael Clayton" - DGA, WGA
"Juno" - WGA
"Atonement" - ASC
"Zodiac" - WGA
"American Gangster" - SAG

The only major groups left to weigh in are the Eddie's (for best editing),  and the Producer's Guild of America.  Those happen tomorrow and Monday.  Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd.
Here are my Oscar locks as of 1/10/08 (new additions in italics):

Best Picture:
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Michael Clayton"
"Into the Wild"

Best Director:
The Coen Bros. - "No Country for Old Men"
Sean Penn - "Into the Wild"
Julian Schnabel - "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Paul Thomas Anderson - "There Will Be Blood"

Best Actor:
Daniel Day Lewis - "There Will Be Blood"
George Clooney - "Michael Clayton"

Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard - "La Vie En Rose"
Julie Christie - "Away from Her"
Ellen Page - "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor:
Javier Bardem - "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook - "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson - "Michael Clayton"
Casey Affleck - "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett - "I'm Not There"
Amy Ryan - "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton - "Michael Clayton"

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