HFPA voters are "absolutely crazy" about Babel, The Queen and The Departed, says Tom O'Neil of the LA Times. O'Neil states that the final two Best Drama nominations will come from Bobby, Flags of Our Fathers or World Trade Center. While the HFPA had not yet seen Blood Diamond or The Good Shepard, they have seen The Pursuit of Happyness. Thumbs way up for Will Smith, O'Neil says, but not for the film.
In the Best Musical/Comedy category Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, The Devil Wears Prada and Borat all appear to be locks for nominations. The fifth slot will go to Thank You for Smoking, Stranger than Fiction or a surprise.
O'Neil says he's talked to members of HFPA about this, so there at least some attempt to be scientifically certain, but really, he doesn't know.