* Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be common across the watch area, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches. The heaviest rainfall will gradually shift from areas along Interstate 44 early this morning into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day.The rainfall is expected to shift eastward, risking flooding in north-central Arkansas.
* The heavy rainfall will likely lead to flooding of low-lying areas. Minor to moderate river flooding is expected. Flash flooding will be possible.
DAY ONE...Today and TonightStay dry out there.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through tonight...especially across the northwest and central portion of the state. While widespread severe weather is not expected...a few strong storms may be seen. Additionally, the threat for flooding will increase as heavy rain overspreads the northwestern half of the state through tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday
Widespread rainfall will be continuing Wednesday with the slow moving front located across southern Arkansas. The heaviest amounts of rain will be located across the south in particular the southeast as low pressure moves along the aforementioned front late Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Several more inches of rain are expected over the southeast but light rain will still be possible across the remainder of the state.
In addition to the heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms are expected. There is a low end chance that some of these storms on Wednesday could be strong with gusty winds and hail the primary concerns.
Precipitation chances will continue through Thursday afternoon for parts of the state until the system finally clears. Given soil moisture levels remain elevated due to the excessive rain in late February...any additional widespread heavy rainfall will not soak into the ground easily. As a result...this will lead to high runoff rates...making flash flooding more likely. The threat for river flooding will also increase in the days to follow.
Additional rain chances return to the forecast over the weekend but the area most likely to be impacted will be the north and even here, amounts are not expected to be excessive.