538 has mapped the potential
for voter swings county-by-county in the presidential election
from 2012, with non-college-educated whites moving to Donald Trum
p and college-educated whites and non-whites going to Hillary Clinton.
You'll note the map, which is interactive at the link, shows generally very modest swings in Arkansas based on current polling. (The bluer the color the bigger the swing to Clinton; the redder the color the bigger the swing to Trump.) I'm intrigued by a finding that 30 percent of Romney voters in Benton County in 2012 could shift to Clinton and that 12 percent of Obama voters there could shift to Trump, for a net 18-point plus for Clinton. Romney got 68.9 percent of the vote in Benton County in 2012, so .....