by David Ramsey
Hillary Clinton continues to poll strongly in surveys conducted after the Democratic National Convention, which show her having received a convention bounce and gaining a meaningful lead over Donald Trump. The polls are coming in quickly enough that it’s somewhat futile to tick them off one by one, but here are some highs and lows as of 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday:Silver guesstimates that Clinton's "post-convention lead over Trump will eventually settle in at about 7 percentage points, give or take a couple points."
Clinton’s smallest lead in any fully post-DNC national survey is 5 percentage points.1 She achieved that 5 percentage point lead in several polls, such as this one from Public Policy Polling.
Her largest lead is 15 points, in a poll from RABA Research. That poll is something of an outlier, though, with most polls showing Clinton’s lead in the 5- to 8-point range.
Clinton’s largest bounce in any national poll, as measured in comparison to another survey by the same pollster conducted with a full set of interviews after the Republican National Convention, is 13 percentage points. That comes from a CNN survey, which showed her turning a 5-point deficit into an 8-point lead.
And her smallest bounce in any such survey is from YouGov, which had her lead growing from 2 percentage points to 5 points, a 3-point bounce.
What a month. At the end of a series of tumultuous events and two political conventions, the presidential race is more or less where it was before it all began: Hillary Clinton has a clear lead.Cohn goes on to argue that Clinton's bounce appears likely to stick, because the many of the gains she made were with ideologically friendly voters as the party unified. "If Mrs. Clinton retains most of her gains over the coming weeks, Mr. Trump’s chances in the race will start to look fairly bleak," Cohn concludes. "No modern presidential candidate who trailed in the polls a few weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the popular vote."
All seven national surveys conducted since the Democratic convention show her ahead, by an average of nearly seven percentage points.
It’s a seven-point boost over where those same surveys showed the race after the Republican convention — enough to erase Donald Trump’s bounce and more. She is about three points ahead of where she was before the two conventions.