Nobody knows precisely when the Supreme Court will issue a decision in King v. Burwell,
and nobody knows just how they will rule. But D.C. insiders are all spreading rumors that a ruling is coming tomorrow morning. We'll see. If not then, it will either be on Monday, June 22 or Monday, June 29.
I have no inside information, but I'm feeling pessimistic. It's become popular among liberal pundits (and many conservatives too) to project that a win for the plaintiffs will end up helping Democrats politically. Maybe, maybe not. Political prognostication is hard. But one thing is certain: if the plaintiffs win, 6.5 million Americans will face immediate harm. State insurance markets across the country will face potential collapse. The rate of uninsurance will leap up. There will be massive confusion and impossible choices for consumers who purchased health insurance in good faith. If I'm pessimistic about the Court, I'm even more pessimistic about the ability of Congress, or lawmakers in Arkansas, to do anything productive about the resulting mess. I hope I'm wrong.
Programming note: I'll be out of pocket tomorrow, so if a decision does come down, any analysis from me will wait until Friday.