by Max Brantley
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Ernest J. Oakleaf, PhD, Zoe D. Oakleaf, PhD.
Opinion Research Associates, Inc.
RE: Survey of Arkansas Likely Voters
DATE: October 13, 2014
Opinion Research Associates, Inc., conducted a survey of 400 Arkansas likely voters,
October 1-5, 2014. The margin of error for the total sample is ±5 percentage points at the
95% level of confidence, meaning that percentages calculated on a sample of 400 cases can
be expected to vary, as a consequence of random variation, by no more than ±5 points from
the true population percentages in 19 out of 20 samples taken. Voters were asked for whom
they would vote in 6 races for constitutional offices in November. All of the major party
candidates’ percentages are within the poll’s margin of error.
In the race for attorney general, Nate Steel, the Democrat, leads Leslie Rutledge, the
Republican, 37% to 36%, with Aaron Cash, the Libertarian, at 3%, and 24% undecided.
In the race for lieutenant governor, John Burkhalter, the Democrat, leads Congressman Tim
Griffin, the Republican, 42% to 39%, with Chris Olson, the Libertarian, at 5%, and 15%
In the state treasurer’s race Karen Sealy Garcia, the Democrat, leads Dennis Milligan, the
Republican, 35% to 31%, with Chris Hays, the Libertarian, at 6%, and 29% undecided.
Regina Stewart Hampton, the Democrat, leads Representative Andrea Lee, the Republican,
in the race for state auditor, 31% to 27%, with Brian Leach, the Libertarian, at 6%, and 37%
Incumbent secretary of state, Mark Martin, the Republican, leads Democratic challenger,
Susan Inman, 42% to 39%, with Jacob Holloway, the Libertarian, receiving 3%, and 16%
In the race for land commissioner, Mark Robertson, the Democrat, leads incumbent Land
Commissioner John Thurston, the Republican, 33% to 32%, with 7% for Elvis Presley, the
Libertarian, and 29% undecided.