“I’m saying for the first time that Democrats are more likely to hold the Senate than not.”
That quote comes from veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg on a conference call with reporters just now. On the call, Greenberg rolled out a new poll of 12 battleground states that contained a striking finding: Democrats have racked up an enormous lead among single women, doubling that lead since July.
But perhaps the most interesting finding of all concerned the Affordable Care Act. While disapproval is still high in the battlegrounds, core Dem voter groups are now citing it as a leading reason to vote. For single women as a category unto themselves — and for the RAE, too — a candidate’s position on the health law is the second most important factor, behind the economy.
This, Greenberg suggested, may help explain another of the poll’s key findings: Democrats appear to be closing the “enthusiasm gap” with Republicans in the battlegrounds. The poll found that of those likely voters who say they are voting Democratic, 91 percent of them are almost certain to vote — while only slightly more, 93 percent, of those who are voting for Republicans say the same.
“The health care law has become much more important as a reason why people are voting for Democrats,” Greenberg said. “The threat of repeal appears to be giving unmarried women and minority voters a reason to vote.”