After being somewhat skeptical, Nate Silver has reviewed the data and concluded that Mitt Romney's 47 percenter speech has hurt him. Yes. It revealed his essence.
They think the mighty Marathon Man, Lyin' Paul Ryan, is also a big problem for Romney. His plan to wreck Medicare is a decided liability with voters.
Back in late August, Obama led Romney on the question of who would handle Medicare better by 8 points in Florida and 10 points in Ohio; now he’s up 15 in Florida and 16 in Ohio. And the problems are especially acute among senior citizens, a group Obama has traditionally struggled with. A month ago, Obama was down 13 points in Florida among people 65 and older; today he’s up 4. On the specific question of Medicare, Obama was down 4 points among Florida seniors in August; today he’s up 5 points. (The Quinnipiac Poll re-shuffled its age-groups between August and September, so you won’t be make apples-to-apples comparisons by eyeballing their crosstabs. But the super-kind people at Quinnipiac re-reshuffled them for me.)
The numbers for Ohio are similar
So to range farther afield, to darkest Arkansas. Yes, Romney will carry Arkansas. But....But .... Is there a chance that a slightly improving economy, coolness toward Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan's demonstrated hatred of the Arkansas-vital safety net programs — Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid — bump the vote, say, 5 percent in Democrats' direction? Means nothing on the national presidential level. It might mean something down the ballot. You really have to wonder how people can vote for the Republican congressional candidates, particularly in the Democrat-leaning 1st and 2nd Districts, when the incumbent congressmen, Rick Crawford and Tim Griffin, have voted down the line with Ryan's radical budget agenda, a devastating prospect for Arkansas?