Nate Silver's number-crunching blog says chances for a Republican takeover of the House are now 3 in 4. Odds favor Republican wins in all but Arkansas's 4th District, his numbers show. I still think Democrat Chad Causey has a shot — and it's improving — in the 1st.
A good sign of Causey's strength is the huge amounts of stealth money pouring into TV in the district to beat him. Latest is a $129,000 ad buy by Americans for Prosperity, the astroturf teabagging group underwritten by billionaire David Koch.