by Max Brantley
New polling by Research 2000 for Daily Kos shows Bill Halter in the lead over incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary runoff for her seat.
Standard disclaimer: Kos is ardently supporting Halter over Lincoln. But Research 2000 is an independent polling firm and its methods have not seemed to be aimed at producing desired outcomes. For example, the pre-primary Research 2000 polling showed Lincoln with a lead, but not a majority of all votes. That was how it turned out.
UPDATE: Here's the new poll, Halter leading 47-44 with the rest undecided. The trend is stuck for Lincoln; up for Halter.
Halter camp crows.
More important, maybe: Poll says
Lincoln v. Boozman 38-58
Halter v. Boozman, 42-53
Unfavorables: Halter (34); Boozman (34); Lincoln (55)
North Little Rock – As he shows a narrow lead in the second-straight public poll, Lt. Governor Bill Halter today reported out-raising Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a two-term incumbent Senator, by almost $225,000.
“This is an incredible show of momentum for Lt. Governor Halter as we head into the final two weeks of the runoff,” said campaign manager Carol Butler. “Clearly Arkansas Democrats are ready for change.”
In the fundraising period for Apr. 29-May 19, Lt. Gov. Halter raised $777,119.94, easily outpacing Sen. Lincoln, who raised $552,289.91. Of her total, nearly half--$232,770.41—came from political action committees. In the runoff, 9,747 individuals have made contributions to Lt. Gov. Halter, and his average contribution is $37.11.
A new Research 2000 Arkansas Poll coming out today on Daily Kos showed Lt. Gov. Halter with a lead over Sen. Lincoln, 47%-44%, the second straight public poll showing Lt. Gov. Halter with a lead in the runoff. The poll shows Lt. Gov. Halter leading among women and African Americans against Sen. Lincoln.
Sen. Lincoln would almost certainly lose to Rep. Boozman, as 58% of the state’s voters view her unfavorably, and Rep. Boozman enjoys a 58%-38% lead over her. She is losing every single region of the state to Rep. Boozman, including Eastern Arkansas. A quarter of Democratic voters would support Rep. Boozman in a general election.
He performs better against Republican nominee Rep. John Boozman, leading among women and in the Little Rock region as well as in Southern Arkansas. He is currently behind in a head-to-head matchup against Rep. Boozman, 53%-42%.
The Research 2000 Arkansas Poll was conducted from May 24 through May 26, 2010. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.