There's new Daily Kos polling today. Kos is a liberal and passionate about beating Blanche Lincoln, but he endeavors to conduct value-free polling because it's more valuable in the end.
Latest: Lincoln 46; Halter 37; Morrison, 6; undecided 11.
Kos' feelings show in his predicting 1) a runoff; 2) fewer votes for Lincoln (45 percent) than she now polls. He relies on her high unfavorable ratings.
I think an equally big part of the story is that Bill Halter, who'll enjoy $10 million in spending from all parties before it's over and who brought a pretty good resume into the race, hasn't risen above 37 despite Lincoln's unfavorables and a negative campaign against her every bit as tough as the sleazy campaign against Halter. If the poll is on the money and she gets 46 percent of the undecideds, she wins without a runoff.
End it, don't extend it.