by Max Brantley
Sen. Gilbert Baker, shown a distant third in recent Mason-Dixon polling, has distributed to supporters his own polling which claims incremental movement in his direction and away from front-runner Rep. John Boozman. But, 44-22? Still looks a bit like a sow's ear to me.
In this Republican primary -- as in the Democratic primary -- a runoff would, however, be a big victory for the second-place finisher.
BAKER LETTER TO SUPPORTERS
THIS LETTER WAS SENT TO BAKER FOR U.S. SENATE SUPPORTERS:
To: Baker for U.S. Senate Supporter
From: Alice Stewart, Campaign Manager
Date: May 7, 2010
RE: Significant Progress Reflected in Recent Polling Data
Dear Baker Supporter,
I want to share with you some positive polling data which reflects significant progress in the Baker for U.S. Senate campaign. A recent survey, conducted by The Political Firm, indicates our campaign polling numbers are on the way up, while Cong. Boozman’s numbers are dropping. This is encouraging news as we head into the home stretch before Election Day.
Here are the numbers gathered earlier this week, compared with the same poll taken last week:
5/4 – 5/5 4/27
Senator Gilbert Baker 22% (+4) 18%
Cong. John Boozman 44% (-2) 46%
This is just the positive data we had hoped to see, as evidence of our progress. Over the past several weeks and months, Gilbert has been out meeting with Arkansans; that voter contact is clearly moving numbers. Cong. Boozman is well under 50% which means the Baker campaign is well positioned for a runoff.
These results are based on an automated survey of 799 likely GOP primary voters conducted by the Political Firm on behalf of Baker for US Senate. (Full report is copied below)
We are the only campaign to have raised more than a million dollars, which gives us the resources we need to keep spreading our conservative message. The Baker Team has run a positive campaign, based on the issues, and voters are responding in a positive way.
Gilbert got into this race eight months ago with a plan for slow-and-steady growth in statewide support. The plan is working. The numbers have shown positive signs of growth and we expect to peak on Election Day.
We thank you for your continued support and ask you to share these positive polling numbers with our fellow Arkansans. Gilbert Baker is in a great position to win, and we ask that you help us by making calls, knocking on doors, and especially voting for Gilbert on May 18th.
Baker for US Senate
TO: BAKER FOR U.S. SENATE
FROM: CLINT REED, THE POLITICAL FIRM
The following results are from of an automated survey of 799 likely GOP primary voters conducted by the Political Firm on behalf of Baker for US Senate. “Likely GOP primary voters” were determined from a random sample by screening and vote history -- GOP primary voters who have voted in at least 3 of the last 6 GOP primaries. The automated survey was conducted on Monday (5/4) and Tuesday (5/5) and has a Margin of Error of +/- 3.46%.
- If the Republican Primary for United States Senate was being held today and the candidates are: Senator Kim Hendren, Randy Alexander, Curtis Coleman, Congressman John Boozman, Senator Gilbert Baker, Jim Holt, Fred Ramey, and Conrad Reynolds. For whom would you vote?
Press 1 for Senator Kim Hendren 4% (-1)
Press 2 for Randy Alexander 2%
Press 3 for Curtis Coleman 5% (+1)
Press 4 for Congressman John Boozman 44% (-1)
Press 5 for Senator Gilbert Baker 22% (+4)
Press 6 for Jim Holt 8% (+2)
Press 7 for Fred Ramey 1%
Press 8 for Conrad Reynolds 3%
Press 9 for Undecided 11%
This is a gain of +4 on the ballot score for our campaign from last week’s results. While Boozman continues to hold steady in the mid-forties, our campaign is the only campaign that is making incremental progress on the ballot score. This is a reflection of our paid and volunteer efforts on the ground. Gilbert continues to enjoy very positive favorable ratings: 6 to 1 (fav/unfav).
Our voter contact is moving numbers. More importantly, 60% of GOP primary voters are less likely to vote for John Boozman when they find out that he voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). This message is resonating as voters become more informed about each candidate. A sustained volunteer effort along with additional voter contact should position us well for the run-off.
The survey was comprised of voters from each congressional district in the following way: 15% from CD1; 29% from CD2; 52% from CD3; 5% from CD4. The gender breakdown is: 60% Male; 40% Female. In addition, Benton, Washington, and Sebastian counties make up 44% of this sample.