Nate Silver offers some statistical evidence to back up my thinking that Sen. Blanche Lincoln didn’t help herself by ultimately positioning herself as THE decisive vote on health and the focus of national reporting and interest groups. He looks to Montana, where two leading Democratic politicians have supported health care, but the one who’s been quiet about it has fared better in polling. Sen. Max Baucus, out front on the issue, has stumbled.

Baucus, indeed, is not alone in this department: virtually everyone who has tried to play a dealmaker role in health care has seen their approval ratings decline, from Chuck Grassley to Olympia Snowe to Harry Reid to President Obama.

If I were Blanche’s Lincoln’s Chief of Staff, my advice to her would be as follows:

1. Vote for cloture.
2. Vote against the bill itself.
3. Articulate this position clearly.
4. And then Shut The Hell Up.

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