The Cook Political Report has developed a partisan voting index. It demonstrates, by congressional district, how strongly the districts follow or depart from national voting patterns in the 2004 and 2008 presidential races. Every district in Arkansas trends more Republican than national averages, from an R +5 rating in the Second District to a whopping R +16 you know where.
As you know, three of the four districts are, nonetheless, represented by Democrats.
As you know, the Republicans feel strongly that such numbers ought to give them a leg up in a statewide race for U.S. Senate. Not enough to field opposition to Sen. Mark Pryor two years ago. But GOP paternalism being what it is, they think the little gal might be more vulnerable. And so on.