Splitting the black vote | Arkansas Blog

Splitting the black vote

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The New York Times examines the division among Southern blacks in the Obama-Clinton contest. Some of it seems to track a generational divide, with younger voters for Obama. My theory is that Hillary will do well to score a decent percentage of that vote, say a third. It's somewhat analagous to a general election contest in Arkansas. The Democratic candidate typically receives more than 90 percent of the black vote. But a candidate who can break that vote stranglehold -- as Mike Huckabee in Arkansas did by getting perhaps a quarter of the black vote in his best showings -- can do well depending on performance in other sectors.

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