The New York Times examines
the division among Southern blacks in the Obama-Clinton
contest. Some of it seems to track a generational divide, with younger voters for Obama. My theory is that Hillary will do well to score a decent percentage of that vote, say a third. It's somewhat analagous to a general election contest in Arkansas. The Democratic candidate typically receives more than 90 percent of the black vote. But a candidate who can break that vote stranglehold -- as Mike Huckabee in Arkansas did by getting perhaps a quarter of the black vote in his best showings -- can do well depending on performance in other sectors.